Hygiene of populated placesISSN: 2707-0441 eISSN: 2707-045X
Issue 69, 2019   -   Pages: 215-222
FORECAST OF HEALTH FOR URBAN CHILDREN AGED 12-15 YEARS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DAILY MOTOR ACTIVITY
O.T. Yelizarova1, M.Yu. Antomonov1, S.V. Hozak1, T.V. Stankevych1, A.M. Parats1
1 STATE INSTITUTION O.M. MARZIEIEV INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH NAMSU

: 613.22:613.955
https://doi.org/10.32402/hygiene2019.69.215

SUMMRY:
The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for the development of the forecast of the health level in the adolescents on the basis of the hemodynamic indices and duration of moderate-high level motor activity.
Material and methods. The study contains the results of a survey of 98 students aged 12-15 years from three Kyiv schools whose parents gave informed consent to the study. An adapted Quantification de LActive Physique en Altitude Chez le Enfants questionnaire was used to determine the duration of moderate-high motor activity. The incidence was studied by means of medical record copying. The vegetative status was determined by the Kerdo Index. A discriminant analysis was used to calculate the classification functions to determine the chances of health deterio-ration.
Results and discussion. The discriminant model included separate and comprehensive indicators of the functional and physical state of the organism (pulse, systolic and diastolic arterial pressure, weight, height, body mass index, vegetative Kerdo index), as well as the duration of weekly motor activity of light and moderately high types..The model was calculated with the help of the forward stepwise technique taking into account determined indicators. Confirmation of the efficiency of calculated functions was performed by cross-checking.
Conclusions. A methodology for the assessment of the health risk in the adolescents has been developed taking into account the assessment of the function of vegetative nervous system and dura-tion of moderate-high physical load. The statistical reliability of the methodology was confirmed by the criteria of evidence-based medicine (sensitivity - 76.0%, specificity - 90.2%, forecast of positive result - 90.5%, forecast of negative result - 79.3%). This methodology is recommended as a tool for primary prophylaxis in the measures for the prevention of the development of noncommunicable chronic diseases. Application of the methodology is possible at both individual and population levels with a probability of 90.5% to determine the chance of health deterioration.

KEYWORDS:
adolescent health, motor activity, social determinants, methodology for health forecast.

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FOR CITATION:
Yelizarova O.T., Antomonov M.Yu., Hozak S.V., Stankevych T.V., Parats A.M. Prohnozuvannia zdorovia miskykh ditei 12-15 rokiv z urakhuvanniam shchodennoi rukhovoi aktyvnosti [Forecast of health for urban children aged 12-15 years taking into account daily motor activity]. In : Hihiiena naselenykh mists : zb. nauk. pr. [Hygiene of Populated Places]. Kyiv ; 2019 ; 69 : 215-222 (in Ukrainian).